Credit: EverythingApplePro

According to new data published by Strategy Analytics, Apple’s entry into the 5G smartphone race will be a big one, and by all estimates the iPhone maker won’t have to do much more than simply show up.

Specifically, if Apple simply matches the same rate at which users have already been upgrading to new iPhones, that will be enough for it to capture a huge share of the 5G market, unseating Samsung as the dominant player.

It may seem counterintuitive that Apple, which currently has no 5G phones in its portfolio will be able to pass current 5G market leaders Samsung and Huawei. But with three new 5G models coming next year, Apple merely needs to match its current upgrade rates for newly introduced iPhone models to take the lead next year.

Ken Hyers, Director at Strategy Analytics

Of course, with Apple expected to offer 5G on all of its 2020 iPhones, as well as likely featuring new designs and other exciting new features, there’s a good chance that pent-up demand will make the upgrade rates even higher.

Samsung is currently the “undisputed market leader in 5G smartphones,” but that’s not a particularly high bar for the rival smartphone maker to reach, considering it’s marketing its new models with bleeding-edge technology in a market that’s relatively free of competition — not only from Apple, but even from many rival Android smartphone makers.

However, Samsung is expected to suffer losses not only to Apple’s new 5G iPhone models, but also to additional Huawei 5G smartphones that are expected to arrive over the next few months, which are particularly expected to flourish in China, which along with the U.S. make up the two largest 5G markets in the world right now.

However, Huawei’s successes will likely be confined to China, since the current U.S. trade ban is seriously limiting their prospects elsewhere, which will also leave Apple with a wider playing field.

Ultimately, however, the reports notes that Apple’s dominance may be short-lived, with Samsung expected to eventually return to the top spot, “by virtue of its dominance of the overall smartphone market” along with a much wider collection of 5G devices that will be available at lower prices than those to which Apple is willing to descend.

Apple has been in no hurry to release a 5G iPhone, preferring to wait until the technology matures and the market settles down — the same approach took with 3G on the second-generation iPhone and later LTE on the iPhone 5, both of which were huge successes despite the delayed upgrades and the resultant predictions of doom that came from some pundits. By waiting, Apple is also now in a position to use the best chips available, avoiding the need to build bulkier iPhones with larger antennas and batteries. Meanwhile, bolstered by its acquisition of Intel’s 5G chip business, Apple is also continuing work on its own first party 5G modem chips that will likely push the performance of its future iPhones even further.