Latest IDC and Gartner data shows Mac sales continue to slow ahead of expected refresh
It’s no secret that most of Apple’s Mac lineup is long overdue for refreshes and new data out today from Gartner and IDC shows how the prolonged period of no updates is affecting Apple in the overall market. Data from both firms shows that Apple is sliding year-over-year in terms of shipments for the third quarter of 2016…
First off, IDC data shows that Apple is down 13 percent year-over-year in terms of shipments. During Q3 2016, the research firm estimates that Apple shipped 5.01 million units worldwide, down 13 percent compared to the 5.76 million shipped in the same period last year. In terms of worldwide marketshare, Apple saw its position fall from 8.1 percent to 7.4 percent. The company remains in fourth overall, lagging behind Lenovo, HP, and Dell. ASUS brings up the rear with 6.9 percent marketshare.
In the United States specifically, Apple’s efforts (or lack thereof) are falling just as flat. The company saw shipments decline to 2.08 million this year from 2.395 million this time last year. Likewise, marketshare is down from 13.9 percent to 11.8 percent. Apple again comes in at spot four, trailing HP, Dell, and Lenovo. This time, Acer comes in fifth with 4.4 percent of the market.
New data from Gartner shows similar trends for Apple. Overall, Gartner saw global PC shipments decline during Q3 for the eighth consecutive quarter, with total shipments of 68.9 million units, down 5.7 percent year-over-year. Apple specifically saw worldwide shipments fall to 4.95 million units this quarter from 5.7 million last year, down 13.4 percent. Marketshare also fell from 7.8 percent to 7.2 percent.
In terms of United States shipments, it’s a similar story. Shipments were down 10.7 percent yer year-over-year for Apple, while its marketshare fell from 14.3 percent to 12.9 percent.
Worldwide, Gartner data puts Apple behind ASUS and in fifth place overall. In the United States only, though, Apple bests ASUS and comes in at spot four.
While Apple in the past has been able to combat market slowdowns, it’s not faring as well this time primarily due to the lack of updates to its Mac lineup. It’s widely expected that we’ll see new MacBook Pros later this month, however, perhaps at an event on October 27th. The new MacBook Pros are expected to feature an all-new design, an OLED touch bar instead of function keys, and switch to USB-C connections all around.
Press releases and charts for the latest Gartner and IDC data can be seen below:
IDC
PC Competitors Position for Share and Growth, Despite Challenges, According to IDC
11 Oct 2016
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., October 11, 2016 – Worldwide PC shipments totaled nearly 68 million units in the third quarter of 2016 (3Q16), a year-on-year decline of 3.9%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Shipment volume continued to decline, but the results were about 3.2% ahead of projections.
The better than expected results reflect competition among the market leaders and an effort to capitalize on market consolidation and future stabilization. After struggling to reduce inventory over the past year or more, PC vendors are now rebuilding inventory for the second half of the year. Combine this with an improving outlook, a race for market leadership between Lenovo and HP, and efforts to guarantee component supplies, and market drivers are taking shape. The seasonal increase in volume during the second half of the year and projected stronger demand going forward provide some justification for more aggressive positioning.
In addition, the largest vendors have consistently gained share and can exert a growing advantage over smaller players by dominating component supply and shelf space. Market leaders continued to gain share in the United States and globally. The top 3 PC vendors took just over 58% of the worldwide market in the third quarter, up from 55% a year ago and 51% in 2014. Nevertheless, total PC shipments are still declining and some of the short-term improvement may come out of next year rather than accelerating longer-term buying.
“We are very pleased to see some improvement in the market,” said Loren Loverde, vice president, Worldwide PC Trackers & Forecasting. “Industry efforts to update products to leverage new processors and operating systems, to deliver a better computing experience encompassing more mobile, secure, and faster systems, and to accelerate PC replacements have been critical. These improvements are accumulating, and set the stage for a stronger market going forward.”
Mature regions continued to perform best, with the United States taking the lead with a second consecutive quarter of positive growth. In other developed markets growth was stable or improved slightly with near flat growth in Japan and Canada, followed by a small decline in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Shipments in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) continued to decline in mid-single digits while Latin America struggled with double-digit declines.
“Although we’ve now seen two consecutive quarters of strong market growth, we believe the strong market performance has less to do with strengthening demand and more to do with increased appetite from the channel for inventory,” added Linn Huang, research director, Devices & Displays. “We will need a strong holiday season to ensure that we don’t enter 2017 in a poor inventory situation.”
Regional Highlights
The United States PC market saw another quarter of positive growth. As expected, Chromebooks had another banner quarter in the K-12 market. Additionally, inventory replenishment in the channel continued, helping to drive total PC shipments above 17.5 million units. However, despite the positive growth, IDC maintains a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter.
Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) PC shipments were stronger than forecast thanks to healthy notebook sales, while desktop sales were very much in line with the forecast. The buildup of expectations towards the year-end business (e.g. mobility adoption) and holiday season promotions like Black Friday, combined with the anticipation of price increases related to some components, pushed the volumes up in the region for notebook.
The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) PC market came in slightly above expectations, although it remained constrained with shipments declining year on year. Efforts to reduce channel inventory continued, allowing for stronger than expected sell-in in China, while the upcoming festive season led to a sequentially higher consumer quarter in India. Several corporate projects that were rolled out across the region, coupled with stronger demand from business users in China, helped alleviate the decline in otherwise soft commercial markets.
The Japan PC market returned to positive growth in the third quarter, stabilizing after a substantial drop in 2015. Demand for Windows 7 systems remained a key driver as companies still using the OS purchased systems ahead of price increases.
Vendor Highlights
Lenovo held onto the top spot, although its lead over HP diminished to the smallest margin since Lenovo took the top position in 2013. Slower growth in China (where Lenovo has its largest share) has made it more difficult for Lenovo to defend its market lead. The recent third quarter of 2016 marked Lenovo’s sixth consecutive year-on-year decline in total shipments, trailing other market leaders who have returned to positive growth. Nevertheless, Lenovo continues to outpace the market and has made strong gains in key markets like the United States.
HP Inc. had a solid quarter with 3.3% growth globally. HP Inc. further consolidated its dominance of the U.S. market, where it grew 5.8% and boosted share to almost 30% for the first time. The company also saw gains in EMEA and Japan.
Dell also had a productive quarter with shipments of 10.7 million units, its second highest quarterly shipment volume since 2011. In 3Q16, Dell saw strong gains in Japan and the United States while EMEA and Latin America also improved.
Apple shipments continued to decline as the company prepares to refresh its PCs.
ASUS also continued to gain share overall with shipments increasing over 5.2% in 3Q16. Rebounding shipments in Japan captured the company’s highest growth, but substantial gains in the United States, EMEA, and Canada delivered important gains with higher volume – helping to offset challenges in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) and Latin America.
Gartner
Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments Declined 5.7 Percent in Third Quarter of 2016
Global PC Shipments Declined for the Eighth Consecutive Quarter
STAMFORD, Conn.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Worldwide PC shipments totaled 68.9 million units in the third quarter of 2016, a 5.7 percent decline from the third quarter of 2015, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. This was the eighth consecutive quarter of PC shipment decline, the longest duration of decline in the history of the PC industry.
PC manufacturers faced many challenges, which included weak back-to-school demand, and ongoing low demand in the consumer market, especially in emerging markets.
“There are two fundamental issues that have impacted PC market results: the extension of the lifetime of the PC caused by the excess of consumer devices, and weak PC consumer demand in emerging markets,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “According to our 2016 personal technology survey, the majority of consumers own, and use, at least three different types of devices in mature markets. Among these devices, the PC is not a high priority device for the majority of consumers, so they do not feel the need to upgrade their PCs as often as they used to. Some may never decide to upgrade to a PC again.
“In emerging markets, PC penetration is low, but consumers are not keen to own PCs. Consumers in emerging markets primarily use smartphones or phablets for their computing needs, and they don’t find the need to use a PC as much as consumers in mature markets.”
The PC market continues to consolidate, as the top six vendors combined for a record high 78 percent of PC shipments in the third quarter of 2016 (see Table 1). Lenovo continued to be the worldwide market leader based on preliminary PC shipments, but HP Inc. is nearly tied for this top spot, and these rankings could change when final shipment results are published. Lenovo has recorded six consecutive quarters of year-over-year shipment declines, while the nearest competitors, HP Inc. and Dell, have recorded shipment growth since the second quarter of 2016.
The stabilization of the PC business market was a key factor for HP Inc.’s shipment growth, as a majority of its revenue was generated from the business segment. Dell’s shipment growth exceeded the regional average in most regions.
In the United States, PC shipments totaled 16.2 million units in the third quarter, a 0.3 percent decline from the same period last year (see Table 2). This is the second consecutive quarter of flat year-over-year PC shipment growth.
“Mobile PCs, which include notebooks, two-in-one PCs and Windows tablets, showed low-single-digit year-over-year growth, but the overall results were offset by a decline of desktop shipments,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “Traditionally, the third quarter has been driven by back-to-school PC sales, but back-to-school marketing campaigns have become less effective for driving PC sales. With so many PCs already in the consumer market, U.S. consumers do not feel the need to buy new PCs; many parents hand down old PCs to their kids. While our PC shipment report does not include Chromebooks, our early indicator shows that Chromebooks exceeded PC shipment growth.”
Asia/Pacific PC shipments totaled 24.7 million units in the third quarter of 2016, a 7.6 percent decline from the third quarter of 2016. Early indicators show that the PC vendors performed better than in the second quarter as they lowered channel inventory coming into the quarter and replenished stock for seasonal back-to-school demand. PC shipments in China are estimated to have declined 4.8 percent. Consumer sales in China were driven by notebook shipments, while the business market was driven by desktop PCs because of cost and computing effectiveness.
PC shipments in EMEA surpassed 19.2 million units in the third quarter of 2016, a 3.3 percent decline from the same period last year. The EMEA market’s decline was mainly associated with very weak demand in Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Middle East and Africa. In the U.K., Brexit had no immediate impact on PC sales, but the depreciation of the British pound against the U.S. dollar caused some vendors to indicate prices will increase through the end of 2016 and into 2017.
These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner’s PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe.
About Gartner
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world’s leading information technology research and advisory company. The company delivers the technology-related insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is the valuable partner to clients in approximately 10,000 distinct enterprises worldwide. Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs, Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, USA, and has 8,100 associates, including more than 1,700 research analysts and consultants, and clients in more than 90 countries.
